Canada’s unemployment rate fell to a forty year low, reinforcing that Canada’s labor market remains constricted, and giving the Bank of Canada added optimism in regard to the economy. The USA added 313,000 jobs last month, beating estimates of 205,000, the unemployment rate remained the same, and as in Canada, the U.S. labor market remains tight, however, wage gains are not running away, allowing the Federal Reserve to take a wait and see on interest rate hikes.
Oil is up 2.75%, Shell has halted gasoline production at its Convent, Louisiana ,refinery, it was clear how long it will be closed.
USDCAD 1.2825, 1.2818, 1.2795 1.2850, 1.2858, 1.2868
USD-CAD has settled in the mid-to-upper 1.2800s after clocking a nine-month peak of 1.3001 earlier in the week. The pair has rallied in five of the last six weeks, though the Canadian dollar has now managed to find its feet on news that Trump will exempt Canada, along with Mexico, from his proposed steel an aluminium tariffs (though this will be temporary and subject to how the White House sees NAFTA negotiations go). We anticipate that USD-CAD will remain in a consolidation for now. Momentum indicators had been flashing “overbought” lately following a strong rally over the last month from sub-1.2300 levels. Upcoming data out of Canada included building permits, later today, and the February employment report, tomorrow, which we project to show a 25.0k gain after the 88.0k tumble in January. Capacity utilization figures are also up tomorrow, where we expect a nudge higher to 85.2% in Q4 from the 85.0% reading in Q3, which was the strongest since Q3 2007.
The euro drifted lower into the European PM session, trading at four-day lows versus the dollar and sterling, one-week lows against the Australian and Canadian dollars, and reversing some of the gains seen versus the yen the during the Tokyo session. EUR-USD clocked a low at 1.2290, extending losses that were seen late yesterday as markets digested Draghi’s dovish twist of yesterday. Follow-through impetus is limited as the release of the U.S. employment report for February starts to loom. In the bigger view, EUR-USD is trading near the midway levels of a range that’s been seen since late January, which marks a consolidative phase after rallying out of sub-1.1600 levels that were seen last November. Support is at 1.2262-64.