The Canadian dollar is generally unchanged while markets await for the Bank 0f Canada on Wednesday, expectations of a 0.25% rate hike, this will increase the bank rate to 1.75%. The pound sterling fell on rumours that Prime Minister May should prepare for a challenge to her leadership. A report by the Telegraph newspaper’s deputy political editor said the DUP, the Northern Irish party which props up May’s government, would back an amendment proposed by rebel Brexiteer lawmakers that would effectively make the European Union’s proposal on the Irish border illegal.
Expect the USDCAD to stay within a narrow range till Wednesday.
The announcement, Monetary Policy Report and press conference are due Wednesday. The BoC is expected to announce a 25 bp rise in rates to 1.75% as the economy runs near potential and underlying inflation holds around the 2% target. We have pencilled in three to four more 25 bp rate hikes next year. The realization of our October projection would leave three 25 basis point rate hikes in 2018 (we expect no change at the December announcement) after the two 25 basis point increases in 2017. A 25 basis point move once a quarter during 2019 still qualifies as gradual in our view, but would be a sign of a bank that is growing increasingly confident in its outlook for the growth and inflation path. USD-CAD has resistance at 1.3132-35.
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