Markets are awaiting for tomorrow’s Bank of Canada’s rate announcement, with full expectations of a 0.25% rate hike, which will make the Canadian dollar stronger. The next one is March 07th, which gives a lot time for the markets to decide where the BoC is going with its rate hikes. Also, the BoC will be releasing its quarterly Monetary Policy Report, this will provide guidelines as to how the BoC sees the Canadian economy, and whether its concerns on Canadian household debt have changed.
Expect a narrow range today.
The USD dollar gained after its lowest close in three years and Treasuries were stable as Congress tries to avoid a government shutdown Friday. Gold and oil dropped. Bitcoin joined a slump in cryptocurrencies, tumbling 13 percent to around $12,000.
USDCAD 1.2416, 1.2406, 1.2393 1.2461, 1.2474, 1.2480
XE Market Analysis: North America – Jan 16, 2018
The euro dropped quite sharply on political concerns in Germany, with some SPD factions reportedly uncertain, or in outright rejection, of proposals to form a grand coalition. This has rattled EUR-USD and euro crosses, which have been aggressively bid in recent sessions. EUR-USD dove by about 70 pips in making a low of 1.2201. EUR-JPY has dropped by some 90 pips from London opening levels. EUR-USD reportedly has sell stop orders clustered around 1.2180-90, levels which have so far remained unchallenged.
USD-CAD has continued to trade with a heavy bias, yesterday logging a five-session low of 1.2402. The low extended the decline seen after logging a high-for-the-year at 1.2590 last Thursday. A broader retreat in the U.S. dollar coupled with Loonie-supporting reports of a possible breakthrough in NAFTA negotiations (Axios reported over the weekend that Trump is softening on it), have weighted on USD-CAD. A lot of focus will remain on the NAFTA negotiations, with uncertainty about this having curtailed the Canadian dollar rallying amid the surge in oil prices and expectations for the BoC to hike interest rates by 25 bp this Wednesday. USD-CAD has support at 1.2400-04, ahead of trend support at 1.2355. Resistance is at 1.2457-60.