Today’s employment cost data has given analysts further evidence that the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates four times, instead of three this year. The Fed meets next week for its regularly announced agenda, expectations are that it will stay the same, but will give evidence as o when it might hike.
TD Bank has hiked mortgage rates to their highest levels in more than five years, five-year fixed mortgages are now 5.59%, up 45 basis points, this is just the beginning.
USDCAD 1.2845, 1.2837, 1.2829 1.2873, 1.2890, 1.2900
USD-CAD has remained buoyant, posting a three-week high of 1.2897 on Wednesday. The move extended a rebound from last week’s two-month low at 1.2527. A correction in oil prices, which have descended back under $68.0 in the WTI benchmark market after making a 40-month high at $69.56, along with a generally firmer bias in the U.S. dollar and associated rise in U.S. Treasury yields, have driven the rebound in USD-CAD. The Canadian dollar had already been coming off the boil in the wake of last Wednesday’s BoC policy meeting, as the statement indicated that the central bank would maintain its cautious stance on future policy changes, which remain data dependent. The latest price action in USD-CAD has negated the downside trend that had been in play over the prior three weeks, from levels near 1.3100.
EUR-USD extended to a 1.2064 low, which is the lowest level seen since early January, making this the sixth down session of the last seven. The pair is also set to mark the biggest weekly loss since the week of November 13th-17th last year. The dovish-tilting guidance by ECB President Draghi yesterday, following the central bank’s April policy review, and a set of above-forecast U.S. data were the last bearish fundamental leads. The data is consistent with the mix of looser U.S. fiscal policy and Fed tightening and a comparatively less hawkish ECB. EUR-USD’s breach and daily close below 1.2154, which had marked the low point of a broadly sideways range that was in play for nearly three months, confirms an evolving bearish trend, which we advise following. Resistance is at 1.2145-50.