Equity markets are better, however, investors remain nervous and need at least a few more days of plus closes before feeling calmer. Oil prices fell due to the inventory numbers and large increases of U.S. domestic crude production. U.S. production has increased so much, that, oil was exported to the middle east for the first in time in December. Shipments from the U.S. ports have increased from a little more than 100,000 barrels a day in 2013 to 1.53 million in November, traveling as far as China and the U.K.
The Canadian dollar has reacted negatively to the lower oil prices and will likely remain weak in the near term.
USD 1.2536, 1.2512, 1.2500 1.2558, 1.2568, 1.2588
USD-CAD has gained nearly 3 big figures from last week’s lows. The stellar U.S. jobs report of last Friday lit a fire under the U.S. dollar. The data, having rekindled expectations for Fed tightening, also sparked a spike on sovereign yields and a risk-off theme in global equity and commodity markets, including oil prices. This is a supportive backdrop for USD-CAD, and we expect the pair to remain underpinned this week. Support is at 1.2475-76.
EUR-USD has extended declines to a 1.2337 intraday low, which has swung yesterday’s two-week low at 1.2313 back into scope. Dollar firmness has driven the decline, with a shaky finish across Asian stock markets and a near 1% loss in S&P 500 futures suggesting that the risk-off phase hasn’t ended yet, despite yesterday’s Wall Street rebound and gains across European bourses today. News that Germany’s CDU and SPD have reached a coalition agreement had little impact on the euro. We anticipate that EUR-USD will remain biased to the downside amid a continued playing out of risk-off conditions. Concerns about lofty equity valuations and global indebtedness following a near decade of ultra-accommodative monetary policy, alongside prospects for rekindled inflationary pressures, and concerns about the prudence of the U.S. deficit-financed tax cuts (at least in some narratives), are likely to remain a dominant narrative for a while yet. While this theme persists, we expect the dollar to remain a buy-on-dips trade. Initial EUR-USD resistance is at 1.2430-32.