Moneyway Analysts Report:
Oil (West Texas Intermediate) is now trading at $58.67 USD a barrel, up 1.12%, this morning. The driving force behind its movement is that OPEC and Russia have crafted the outline of a deal to extend their oil production cuts to the end of next year, although both sides are still hammering out crucial details. However, the main event doesn’t take place until next week when all the OPEC members, several non-OPEC members including Russia will meet in Vienna to discuss even further production cuts.
Expect narrow range today.
USD 1.2696, 1.2680, 1.2671 1.2715, 1.2728, 1.2736
XE Market Analysis: US Dollar Under Pressure as Euro Gains
- Quiet holiday-thinned trade has caused the US Dollar to hit 5-week lows.
- GBP supported by positive Brexit noises.
- CAD is quiet but oil prices are higher.
The Euro has risen to a 2-month high versus the Dollar as recent economic data continues to show growing momentum across the single currency bloc. German business confidence hit a record high in November, beating market forecasts and putting Europe’s largest economy on track for a boom. The Euro looks set to test the physiological 1.20 level in the coming days.
The US Dollar has had a rather unhappy holiday as it has fallen to a 5-week low versus its major counterparts as doubts were raised over the Fed’s rate hike plans next year. The economic data has generally been above expectations, but the Fed is now becoming concerned by continued soft inflation readings that could see them slow or even pause their hiking cycle.
The Pound is trading higher across the board except for the outperforming Euro as recent comments on Brexit sounded mildly optimistic. At a Brussels meeting with UK PM Theresa May, Jean-Claude Juncker said the Brexit negotiations are progressing, and a further meeting scheduled for December 4th will allow the EU to see whether sufficient progress was made on Brexit talks.
The Euro is today’s top performing G10 currency, up 0.75% versus the US Dollar (see highlight).
The Loonie is marginally higher today supported by following reports that OPEC and Russia have an outline agreement to extend oil production cuts. Oil prices are tracking towards their highs since mid-2015 which are supporting the Canadian Dollar.
The Aussie Dollar is holding around one percentage point up from a 5-month low that hit earlier this week as the US Dollar suffered losses on speculation that the Federal Reserve will go slower on monetary tightening than previously thought.
The Mexican Peso is “undervalued in general terms” according to Mexican central bank chief Agustin Carstens, stating that it seemed reasonable for the currency to be trading at between 17 to 18 pesos per dollar. The Mexican Peso has recovered from record lows at the start of this year but remains 30% lower than where it traded versus the US Dollar.