Markets are still in a holding pattern with a negative trend, oil continues to send signals out that the global economies are going to do better . Oil prices are 81% higher than this time last year, there were dips along the way in November when prices fell even further. Oil analysts believe that prices will continue higher with expectations of $78 USD a barrel versus today’s price of $71.35 USD a barrel. An uneven recovery in fuel consumption, a lack of investment in new oil fields and the disruption caused by the transition to low-carbon energy are likely to spur greater price swings.
The Canadian dollar is weaker and reacted to overall weaker commodities, one thing of note is the lumber, it was deemed to go beyond its recent high of $1,700 USD on the Chicago Mercantile, this morning it’s $969 USD, a drop of 57% of the high. Lumber manufacturers have caught up to demands and are filling in the voids, once those voids are gone prices will likely fall but not to last year’s lows of $450 USD.
The FED will leaves rates unchanged tomorrow, however it will be its economic forecast that will be of interest, the question is will it change the date of its next interest rate hike? We shall wait and see.
Currently* Close Range
USDCAD 1.2198 1.2141 1.2129-1.2199
EURCAD 1.4786 1.4712 1.4709-1.4774
GBPCAD 1.7166 1.7131 1.7110-1.7168