The Fed will be revealing its first forecast for the economy and interest rates since late last year, as it skipped a forecast in March just as the pandemic forced the abrupt shutdown of the economy. How much the Fed will reveal about its future intentions and what it says about its view of the economy could be the keys to this week’s two-day meeting, and bond market strategists say a number of outcomes could be market moving. Expectations are that the Fed will leave rates alone, basically there is no room left to cut and a negative interest rate environment is not that conducive for the economy. This is a two-day event and the results will be tomorrow.
Oil prices fell slightly, it is trading in the $38 USD a barrel after this morning’s inventory numbers. Oil’s recovery from the virus-driven demand crash and swollen stockpiles remains uneven. Consumption is showing signs of uptick in India, where Indian Oil Corp. is boosting processing at its refineries this month. Still, the OECD is forecasting a sharp contraction in the global economy this year that could get worse if there’s a second wave of virus infections.
As U.S. states push deeper into reopening, several that were among the first to reopen have reported surges in cases and hospitalizations. Confirmed cases across the U.S. have been on a gradual rise since Memorial Day weekend, when packed beaches and crowded gatherings prompted warnings from officials. Texas has reported two consecutive days of record-breaking Covid-19 hospitalizations, while Arizona is now reporting higher than normal numbers as well. The increase in cases can’t solely be attributed to increased testing in Arizona, experts say. Arizona’s largest hospital system warned over the past week that its intensive care units are filling up, ventilator use was on the rise and capacity was reached for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation treatment.
The Canadian dollar is a little stronger to the USD, however it should have a narrow range until after the Fed announcement tomorrow.