The Canadian government was quick to point out that it was not left out of today’s announcement, stating that Canada still has to approve the overall deal. Mexico and the U.S. were focused primarily on the auto trade, Trump believes that there have been too many job losses in the U.S. from which Mexico has benefitted. What the final outcome looks like remains to be seen, Canada’s Freeland is in Europe this week. Even once Canada agrees, any Nafta deal between the three countries would have to be ratified. Timelines set out under U.S. trade law mean that would almost certainly be done by the next U.S. Congress, raising the prospect of further hurdles.
The Canadian rallied on this news, the prospects of a new NAFTA agreement might be a lot sooner than expected.
30 day simple moving average 1.3076
90 day simple moving average 1.3029
USDCAD 1.2953, 1.2941, 1.2925 1.3045, 1.3055, 1.3070
USD-CAD has settled below 1.3100 after last week printing a one-week high at 1.3103. Hopes that the U.S. and Canada will “handshake” a NAFTA deal remain, although hopes on this front have had a tendency to disappoint, and price action in USD-CAD has become somewhat convoluted. A former resistance zone at 1.3050-55 now marks support.
EUR-USD has drifted back towards 1.1600 after posting a peak a 25-day peak at 1.1654. Markets have continued to digest the slightly more dovish than expected speech by Fed Chairman Powell on Friday, where he stuck to the “policy gradualism” script with regard to tightening. This saw the USD index (DXY) edged out a three-session low at 95.00 in early Asia-Pacific trading. Despite recent gains, we still put greater odds for a sustained move to the downside than to the upside, expecting incoming U.S. data as likely to firm-up expectations for a 25 bp Fed hike in December, which would follow an already fully-anticipated 25 bp hike in September. Fed fund futures have been discounting about 50-50 odds for a December hike. We would also expect the Dollar to appreciate in the scenario of fresh bouts of risk aversion in global markets in the event that the trade war escalates further.