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Unexpected trade surplus adds to Canadian dollar strength

By MoneyWay | Jul 3, 2019

Today’s Canadian trade data continues to reiterate that the Bank of Canada may right on its call for a stronger Canadian economy. The country ran a rare trade surplus on $762 million in May. It’s only the fourth surplus for the country since oil prices began declining in 2014, driven by a 4.6 per cent increase in exports. Also, of note is that the U.S. trade gap increased, whether Trump will see that gap as a negative towards Canada’s gain, remains to be seen.

Expect the Canadian dollar to follow oil which is up slightly due to lower inventory numbers, however Saudi’s Aramco is poised to issue one of the largest IPOs in history, expect prices to remain the same or higher in the short term.

Currently             Close                     Range

USDCAD               1.3070                   1.3108                   1.3064-1.3119   

EURCAD               1.4734                   1.4790                   1.4735-1.4804

GBPCAD               1.6420                   1.6505                   1.6416-1.6512

                                                                                       Prior                      Actual

CA:         Merchandise Trade         May                       $-1.0B                   $0.8B

US:         International Trade         May                       $-51.2B                 $-55.5B

                Jobless Claims wk6/29                                    229K                      221K

                Petroleum Status Report wk6/28

                                Crude Oil                                              -12.8 M Brls        -1.1M Brls

                                Gasoline                                               -1.0M Brls            -1.6M Brls

                Factory Orders                  May                       -1.2%                     -0.7%

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