The USDCAD continues its narrow range as markets prepare for another rate hike by the Bank of Canada next month. There is no Canadian economic data till Wednesday of this week, so the CAD will react to external forces, such as the next tweet form Trump, or oil price changes, which currently remain the same. On Wednesday, Canadian retail sales will be released, and analysts are looking at a drop in sales, so this has already been built into the market, and therefore there shouldn’t be much of a change.
Expect a narrow range today.
USDCAD 1.3057, 1.3048, 1.3040 1.3070, 1.3075, 1.3083
USD-CAD has consolidated the steep drop that was seen on Friday following the release of hotter-than-expected CPI data out of Canada. The pair logged a four-session low at 1.3052, and this level and last week’s low at 1.3050, now form a key near-term support zone. There remains a built-in discount to the Canadian Dollar, relating to the NAFTA renegotiation, so USD-CAD will remain directionally sensitive to developments on this front. The pair has resistance at 1.3098-1.3100.
EUR-USD has drifted modestly lower through the London AM session, presently at 1.1407 bid after printing an intraday low at 1.1403. The pair had opened in New Zealand at 1.1435-56, and the losses today reflect an unwinding of the gain seen late Friday on the WSJ story alleging that a summit between Trump and Xi was in the works. The summit has not been officially confirmed, while Turkish Lira has vaulted lower again, driving USD-TRY above 6.0000, following S&P and Moody’s downgrades (on Friday). We retain a bearish view of EUR-USD. The relative strength of the U.S. economy should be showcased by incoming data, and show price pressures to be picking up, which in turn should girder the Fed’s course to further tightening. Despite the recent turmoil in global markets, we still expect two more 25 bp hikes in the Fed funds rate this year, one in September and another in December. In Europe, concerns remain about the Eurosceptic populist government have come back to the fore, while the palpable risk of a no-deal Brexit is an added downside risk for the Euro. EUR-USD has resistance at 1.1427-30, and last week’s 14-month low at 1.1301 provides a downside waypoint.