A combination of political uncertainty in Italy, Turkey, an increase in US-North Korean tensions and US-China trade talks fading, allowed the USD to gain against most major currencies.
Turkey’s financial stability has come into question, it’s currency the Turkish lira has fallen to its lowest level in ten years, investors are concerned about the country’s monetary policy and inflation, they believe that the government has too much influence on the central bank. Italian government policies are also giving investors concerns, the government has made many promises that are likely too expensive to implement.
Hopes are diminishing that the U.S. and North Korea will meet at an executive level, Trump gave some pessimistic comments while Kim Jong Un expressed negative tones as well. Trump has also announced wanting further terms with China in its trade negotiations.
Oil fell on the inventory numbers.
USDCAD 1.2865, 1.2840, 1.2825 1.2885, 1.2890, 1.2905
USD-CAD has flipped higher over the last day, posting a two-day peak at 1.2971. This maintains a choppy, broadly sideways range that’s been persisting for a month now. The low over this period has been 1.2729 and the high 1.2997. Generally U.S. dollar firmness has been met by Loonie-supportive higher oil prices, which has been causing volatility in USD-CAD but little net directional bias. We expect more of the same for now.
EUR-USD traded below 1.1700 for the first time since last November, pegging a low at 1.1698. A generally firmer dollar coupled with a pronounced drop in EUR-JPY drove the latest price turn, though the euro has been weakening against other currencies in addition to the dollar and yen, most notably the Swiss franc. Italy remains in the spotlight amid concerns about the policy proposals of the anti-establishment, Eurosceptic coalition government. We remain bearish, expecting, aside from the revival in Eurozone existential risks, the rising U.S. yield advantage relative to Bunds to sustain. EUR-USD resistance comes in at 1.1808-10.