USD-CAD has continued to hold near 1.3100, consolidating the recovery gains seen from last Wednesday’s one-week low at 1.2969, which was seen after the BoC rate hiked interest rates by 25 bp. Recent sharp oil price declines, which drove WTI benchmark futures to 12-week lows yesterday, have been weighing on the Canadian dollar.
Canadian August GDP is due later today. We expect an expansion of 0.1% (m/m, sa) after the 0.2% gain in July, which would keep growth on track for the 2.0% pace that both ourselves and the BoC forecasts for the separate real Q3 GDP measure (q/q, saar). Canada’s October employment is up on Friday, where we project an expansion of 15.0k after the 63.3k surge in September.